5/18/2010 Worst-Case Thinking

I just read this brilliant article by Bruce Schneier on his security blog. I think his comments can be applied to many circumstances but when I read it I immediately thought of my "free-range kids" philosophy.

He says: "There's a certain blindness that comes from worst-case thinking. An extension of the precautionary principle, it involves imagining the worst possible outcome and then acting as if it were a certainty. It substitutes imagination for thinking, speculation for risk analysis, and fear for reason. It fosters powerlessness and vulnerability and magnifies social paralysis." This reminded me of a couple years ago when we were at Chuck E. Cheese and Eva had to go to the bathroom. I remember thinking "I should escort her in because you NEVER know, there may just be a predator in the restroom just waiting for a vulnerable child to walk in." Let the nightmare begin!

Schneier continues: "Worst-case thinking means generally bad decision making for several reasons. First, it's only half of the cost-benefit equation. Every decision has costs and benefits, risks and rewards. By speculating about what can possibly go wrong, and then acting as if that is likely to happen, worst-case thinking focuses only on the extreme but improbable risks and does a poor job at assessing outcomes."
This is where the "What if" game comes into play. What if Eva goes in the restroom by herself and someone smuggles her out of Chuck E. Cheese and kidnaps her?? What if some pervert is in there waiting for her?? Yet, no one ever asks the OTHER What ifs: What if I let Eva go to the bathroom herself because she is perfectly capable?? What if she learns to be confident and self-reliant?? What if she learns that she can be trusted?? What if she learns some common sense?? Too bad society rarely asks these questions about what our children GAIN by letting go of too much fear-mongering, worst-case thinking.

And by the way, I let my 5 year old daughter go to the restroom by herself and she came out grinning.